Future Developments in Higher Education: Five Key Patterns to Observe in 2025
Now that the New Year's countdown has concluded, attention shifts towards the significant advancements anticipated in the higher education sector in 2025.
The year prior was a challenging period for American universities and colleges, marked by numerous institutions grappling with substantial budget deficits. Widespread protests broke out across the nation over the Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza, leading to several university presidents stepping down from their posts. State governance continued to challenge curricular and diversity initiatives, while a decrease in new freshmen raised concerns over a potential prolonged drop in college enrollment. The rollout of the Free Application for Federal Student Aid (FAFSA) experienced complications, further impacting college admissions. Lastly, the election of Donald Trump as president brought about uncertainty and apprehension concerning the federal government's approach towards higher education.
What noteworthy higher education topics will dominate the discussion in 2025? Will the coming year prove to be a period of tranquility for universities and colleges, or another year characterized by turmoil and controversy? Here are five trends that merit observation.
Trump's Higher Education Agenda Comes to Fore
During his presidential campaign, Donald Trump put forth various promises regarding higher education. Now, campus leaders will begin to uncover which, if any, of these promises will materialize. Within the prevailing uncertainty, key issues will take center stage.
- Will the Department of Education face elimination, as Trump has suggested? Although Congressional approval is required for such an action, the Department's programs and funding streams remain uncertain. How will Title I, special education, Pell Grants, Title IX enforcement, and student loans be affected? Will they be cut back or distributed to other cabinet-level agencies like the Treasury, Department of Justice, and Health and Human Services? How much power might a Republican-controlled Department of Education wield? The straightforward answer is "significant," so expect an amplified federal oversight focused on promoting conservative causes.
- Will the accreditation process undergo disruption, as Trump has pledged? To what extent will Linda McMahon, Trump's chosen candidate for Secretary of Education, utilize accreditation as her secret weapon, fulfilling Trump's promise to "dismiss the radical left accreditors that have enabled our colleges to be controlled by Marxist zealots and lunatics?" Or will regional accreditors voluntarily make changes, preemptively removing or revising standards that have attracted Trump's ire? Accreditation will emerge as a significant policy tool in 2025.
- University researchers are anxious about how much the Trump administration will alter the priorities of federal research funding agencies such as the National Science Foundation and the National Institutes of Health (which currently contribute the majority of federal funding for basic science). Will specific areas of research be restricted? Will grant proposal peer-reviews continue? Trump's selection of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to lead HHS has unsettled many scientists. Kennedy's inclination towards various discredited ideas indicates a difficult road ahead for evidence-based research.
- How far might the incoming administration push changes in university curricula and programming, considering Trump's frequent rhetoric against "liberal indoctrination" on campuses? Might federal financial aid be conditioned on what is or isn't taught at an institution?
- What will happen to the vast number of DACA (Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals) students currently enrolled in postsecondary institutions? During a recent interview on Meet the Press, Trump mentioned, "we have to do something about the Dreamers," adding, "I will work with the Democrats on a plan." However, these statements contradict Trump's hardline stance on immediately commencing the deportation of undocumented immigrants. Finding a solution to the Dreamers issue remains elusive.
The extent to which Trump's proposed policy changes will eventually be implemented remains to be seen. Yet, it's clear that the next four years will witness one of the most challenging periods of federal oversight for higher education officials in decades.
Additionally, it remains unclear how Trump's policies might impact the general public's perception toward higher education. Will it continue to erode, fueling existing doubts about the worth of a college education, or will higher education regain some of its lost trust, as more Americans discover and value the numerous benefits of advanced education?
AI Integrates into College Infrastructure
Up until now, the main focus of discussions about artificial intelligence has been its role in teaching and learning, as well as the risks it poses for academic integrity. However, with technology rapidly evolving, 2025 is likely to see AI emerge as a crucial element in the infrastructure of most colleges and universities.
Enterprise AI will involve improvements in pedagogical offerings, such as teaching courses with AI-generated materials, as well as supplying additional support to tutoring and student success initiatives. At the operational level, AI will also be employed in areas like procurement, HR practices, budgeting, and planning. Expect increased AI utilization in admissions and financial aid decision-making as well. More institutions will add AI research centers and academic departments, while AI will become an essential tool in various scientific research fields.
AI will also become a common element in the curriculum. Ravi Pendse, vice president for information technology and chief information officer at the University of Michigan, advocates that "every student who graduates from a higher education institution should have at least one core course in AI or substantial exposure to AI tools." This way, we will be doing a disservice to our students if we fail to offer opportunities to acquire these skill sets.
Upcoming legislative sessions will initiate in January, and as tradition dictates, numerous bills relating to higher education will be introduced. This year, similar to previous ones, we can anticipate various contentions such as anti-tenure legislation, prohibition of DEI (diversity, equity, and inclusion) initiatives, restrictions on teaching "controversial" concepts like critical race theory, conceal-and-carry gun protections, and restrictions against legacy admission preferences.
However, 2025 may witness a surge in state legislatures intervening in the traditional role of faculty senates within university governance. For instance, in Texas, Governor Dan Patrick has instigated state lawmakers to investigate and propose modifications to the function of faculty senates in university administration, curriculum design, and decision-making.
The concept of shared governance, where faculty and administrators collaboratively make significant university decisions, has come under scrutiny in recent times through legislative efforts and university actions curtailing the authority of faculty in such matters.
Last year, the Arizona legislature authorized House Bill 2735, which aimed to diminish the statutorily protected participation of faculty in shared governance while enhancing the power of public university presidents and the Arizona Board of Regents. Arizona Governor Katie Hobbs vetoed the bill, but its implementation would have marked a significant loss in faculty influence. Expect more such legislative attempts this year to limit the role of faculty in shared governance.
Financial Struggles Persist
The financial outlook for higher education remains precarious. Reports from rating agencies like Moody’s Ratings, S&P Global, and Fitch Ratings indicate several pressing factors, such as enrollment challenges and uncertainties surrounding a possible second Trump term as president.
As per a summary published by Inside Higher Education, Moody’s projected a stable year, while S&P Global Ratings forecasted a mixed picture with challenges for regional, less-selective colleges and stability for well-resourced institutions with diverse enrollment bases. Fitch presented the most negative projection, anticipating a deteriorating outlook in 2025 due to enrollment difficulties, tight budget margins, and an unpredictable legislative landscape.
Last year witnessed the finances of numerous colleges and universities experiencing a significant downturn, prompting several prominent institutions to implement substantial budget cuts to curb losses. As an illustration, just last month, Brown University announced plans to lessen a $46 million budget deficit.
Prepare for more institutions being compelled this year to enact drastic budget cuts, involving both faculty and staff layoffs. Declarations of financial exigency, mergers, and even closures are likely to increase.
College Athletics Arena Shifts
College athletics is expected to continue its evolution towards commercialism and professionalism in the new year. Judicial rulings, legislative changes, and economic pressures have reshaped the landscape of college sports.
Just as you thought you could grasp the intricacies of NIL (name, image, and likeness) rights for college athletes, prepare to grappled with the emergence of revenue sharing. Assuming legal sanctioned developments proceed as projected, major universities may be able to distribute a portion of their revenue to their intercollegiate athletes sometime in the summer, with a proposed cap between $20 and $22 million per year per institution.
In addition to this, the rampant use of transfer portals, conference consolidation and reorganization, and alterations in national tournaments will likely persist. Despite the promise of these developments leading to needed reforms in big-time college sports, history suggests that such modifications have traditionally been elusive, often thwarted by the NCAA or higher education institutions themselves.
- In the realm of university governance, the Department of Education under Trump's administration might face elimination, leading to uncertainty over funding streams for programs like Title I, Pell Grants, and Title IX enforcement.
- The accreditation process is anticipated to undergo disruption in 2025, with potential changes to standards to align with Trump's agenda or preemptive moves from regional accreditors.
- AI is expected to integrate into the infrastructure of most colleges and universities, playing a role in areas like pedagogy, tutoring, procurement, and HR practices.
- The financial outlook for higher education remains challenging due to enrollment difficulties and uncertain political landscapes, leading to possible budget cuts and closures in several institutions.
- College athletics will continue to evolve towards commercialism and professionalism, with developments such as NIL rights, revenue sharing, and transfer portals reshaping the landscape of intercollegiate sports.
