NASA Announces Significant Alteration in Asteroid's Trajectory Suggesting Potential Impact with Earth in 2032
The once-concerning asteroid, 2024 YR4, has notably lessened fears these days after its imminent danger to Earth in 2032 significantly decreased. According to NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS), the asteroid's probability of colliding with our planet now sits at a mere 0.28%, or 1-in-360 chances.[1][3][5]
Originally, these odds were far from minuscule, as models suggested a jaw-dropping 3.1% chance of an impact, translating to 1-in-32 odds.[1][3][5] This drastic drop has induced a collective sigh of relief among the concerned – albeit, with a slight hint of uncertainty remaining as the odds aren't entirely zero.[1][3][5]
Although not an astronomical behemoth, 2024 YR4's size ranges between 130 to 300 feet wide (40 to 90 meters). It may not be catastrophic enough to cause a global disaster; however, it still wields the power to severely impact a large city or district if it were to collide with Earth.[1][3][5]
On the Torino Impact Hazard Scale, which measures asteroid threat levels, 2024 YR4 earned a 3.[1][3][5] Torino 3s signify a "1% or greater chance of collision capable of localized destruction."[1][3][5] Even though the asteroid's odds have dropped to 0.28%, it doesn't fall below a Torino 1 rating, which refers to "a routine discovery in which a pass near the Earth is predicted that poses no unusual level of danger." According to experts, the current chances of a collision are extremely improbable, making it unworthy of raising public attention or concern.[1][3][5]
Surprisingly, 2024 YR4 surpassed Apophis – an asteroid known for its potential hazards – in its perceived danger earlier this week.[1][3][5] Discovered in 2004, Apophis was once notable for being one of the most hazardous asteroids, but later in 2021, it was found to pose no risk to Earth for at least a century.[1][3][5]
First spotted on December 27, 2020, by the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS), 2024 YR4 was a whopping 515,116 miles (829,000 kilometers) away from Earth at the time.[1][3][5] Its odds of impact steadily rose within a month, according to NASA calculations, to a 1.2% probability.[1][3][5]
As the total range of potential paths for the asteroid narrowed, Earth remained within the projected danger zone. While the pool of potential paths shrank, the rock's potential impact covering a larger portion of Earth increased the odds, despite the seeming reduction of the overall risk.[1][3][5]
As of now, the asteroid is moving away from us but will make a flyby in 2028 with a possible first impact point in 2032.[1][3][5] By April 2022, astronomers expect the asteroid to become too dim for the largest ground-based telescopes to detect, prompting the urgency to collect and analyze as much data as possible before it vanished from sight.[1][3][5]
Though 2024 YR4 remains a slight concern to Earth within the next 100 years, recent estimations suggest a reassuring reduction in the threat levels.[1][3][5]
[1] Nair, R. (2022, February 12). Asteroid 2024 YR4 has a near-zero chance of hitting Earth in 2032, NASA says. NBC News. https://www.nbcnews.com/science/space/asteroid-2024-yr4-has-near-zero-chance-hitting-earth-nbsncnbcnews-nbr1310276
[3] Asteroid 2024 YR4 chance of hitting Earth down from 3.1% to 0.28%, NASA says. foxnews.com. (2022, February 11). https://www.foxnews.com/science/asteroid-2024-yr4-chance-earth-impact
[5] Asteroid YR4's odds of hitting Earth have plummeted since Christmas, but it's not a total relief. cnet.com. (2022, February 11). https://www.cnet.com/science/space/asteroid-yr4s-odds-of-hitting-earth-have-plummeted-since-christmas-but-its-not-a-total-relief/
- Despite the significant decrease in the chances of asteroid 2024 YR4 colliding with Earth in 2032, the future of space exploration and asteroid deflection technology still relies on improvements in predictive science and technology.
- The consternation caused by the initial high odds of an asteroid impact has now been replaced with a routine monitoring of 2024 YR4, as its chances have dropped below the Torino 1 rating.
- The space community, along with various technology and science agencies, continue to keep a close eye on asteroid 515, given its size and potential impact, even though its chances of colliding with Earth have significantly decreased.
- As we look to the future of space exploration, the chances of asteroid collisions serve as a reminder of the importance of advancing our technology and understanding of asteroids, such as 2024 YR4, to mitigate potential risks.
